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Step By Step, the Balkan War Unfolds NATO bombing over Yugoslavia continues into its fifth week with no end in sight, while U.S. leaders are increasingly divided over strategy.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 4/25/99 As of April 25, NATO's bombing campaign over Yugoslavia is in its 33rd day. As predicted weeks ago by GSReport, there is no end in sight, and the possibility of a major ground war is now openly discussed in Washington. Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic remains defiant and retains the ardent support of most Serbs, despite mounting hardship throughout the region. The process of ethnic cleansing continues. Over 1 million ethnic Albanian Kosovars have been driven into exile, while many thousands more have apparently been killed or are unaccounted for. NATO bombing has stepped up, and civilian targets are no longer off limits. Although NATO leaders insist progress is being made, unofficial discussion of a ground war has begun. American Apache helicopters have arrived in their Albanian staging area. The Pentagon has authorized another 2,000 U.S. troops to deploy to the area, bringing the total U.S. ground forces to more than 5,000. Russia continues to protest the bombing and says it will ignore NATO's newly announced oil embargo against Serbia. Anti-American and anti-NATO sentiment in Russia is intensifying. And protests against the Balkan campaign are beginning to occur in the United States and Europe. Leaders of 19 NATO nations meeting this week in Washington D.C. to mark the 50th anniversary of the alliance are using the occasion to reaffirm the current strategy and discuss further steps. A summit statement issued on April 23 vowed "no compromise" with Milosevic. "We will not allow [his] campaign of terror to succeed... NATO is determined to prevail," the statement said. The terms for a cessation of bombing were succinctly enumerated: Milosevic must stop all violence and withdraw his military and police forces from Kosovo, agree to the stationing of an international military force, permit the safe return of all refugees and accept autonomy for Kosovo. These are terms that Milosevic is certain to reject. Thus, the bombing campaign is certain to continue, and the prospect of wider war grows. The NATO leaders also dismissed a Russian initiative to settle the conflict because Belgrade refuses to accept a NATO-led military force to enforce peace. In turn, Russian leaders declined to attend the NATO summit in protest over the bombing. Still, NATO said they want to work constructively with Russia, and that Moscow had "an important role to play in the search for a solution to the conflict in Kosovo." Following similar action by the European Union, NATO imposed an oil embargo on Yugoslavia on April 23. While stopping short of announcing a formal naval blockade, Supreme Allied Commander in Europe General Wesley Clark was instructed to draw up rules of engagement for a stop-and-search naval operation, which will have to be approved by the NATO council. The oil embargo, following the destruction of most of Serbia's domestic oil refineries, is intended to further degrade Belgrade's military capability as quickly as possible. But Russia, one of Yugoslavia's main oil suppliers, announced it would ignore the blockade, adding another significant point of friction between Moscow and the West. "NATO would be extremely foolish to enforce a [oil] ban as it would lead to direct confrontation with Russian civilian vessels," said Ruslan Nickolov, an oil analyst at Nomura Securities in London. "Then Russia may send naval vessels to support them." But NATO leaders seem willing to take that chance. "Why are we doing this? Essentially because without oil, the Yugoslav military machine will come to a halt and very quickly," said NATO spokesman Jamie Shea. Prior to the start of bombing, Serbia's crude oil production averaged 18,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters. Serbia imported another 54,000 barrels per day, mainly from Russia and Greece, to meet its daily consumption needs. Meanwhile, the continued bombing over Serbia is accompanied by a process termed "Target creep." General Wesley Clark has been granted wide latitude in his choice of targets, which increasingly includes targets with a heightened risk of civilian casualties. Serbs were particularly outraged when NATO air strikes hit the Serbian state television (RTS) building in downtown Belgrade on April 23, taking all channels off the air and killing at least ten civilians. NATO said the target was justified because Milosevic uses Serb TV is an important propaganda tool. When TV broadcasting was restored only six hours after the initial strike, NATO leaders vowed to hit it again. But criticism of this action was not confined to the Serbs. The human rights group Amnesty International lodged a protest on April 23. "Based on the information available, we do not see how this attack could be justified. We are seeking an urgent explanation from NATO as to their reasons," Amnesty spokesman Paul Miller said. Also outraged by the action was Italian Foreign Minister Lamberto Dini. "The bombing of the Yugoslav state television was not in the plans... It is terrible and I disapprove of it," he was quoted as saying. Back in the United States, Congress is deeply divided over how to proceed. According to conservative columnist Robert Novak, of the 41 senators who on March 23 voted not to bomb Yugoslavia, no more than 10 today want to end the bombing and go back to negotiations. But that support for the current campaign does not translate into confidence in President Clinton and his national security team. "GOP lawmakers who emerged from a meeting with Clinton [on April 20] pledging to back the war were blistering in their angry off-the-record assessment," Novak writes. "'It's a disaster,' said one senator who specializes in national security. 'This is the most inept group of foreign policy advisers I have ever seen. It's scary.'" While most Democrats are still publicly rallying behind the president, Republican presidential contenders are deeply divided over what to do next. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) openly advocates preparing for a ground war now. Texas Governor George W. Bush and former Red Cross President Elizabeth Dole favor sending ground troops only if called for by NATO leaders. But, says Mrs. Dole, "This is a war... We've got to win it, and win it absolutely." Billionaire businessman Steve Forbes opposes sending ground troops. But he, along with former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander, says NATO should arm Kosovo's ethnic Albanians and train them as freedom fighters. And Pat Buchanan opposes the NATO campaign outright, as does longshot presidential hopeful Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire. Meanwhile, Congressman Tom Campbell (R-Calif.) is trying to force a vote in Congress under the 1973 War Powers Act, which would require withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Kosovo region after 60 days unless Congress approves the deployment. House leaders of both parties have been trying to find a way to avoid the vote, but Campbell promises to press his challenge all the way to the Supreme Court. The Kosovo campaign -- which Clinton still refuses to term a war -- could now go on past the end of this year, some analysts and legislators fear. It is likely to cost far more than the $6 billion already requested by the Clinton administration. Some believe it will effectively destroy the much-heralded federal budget surplus. Even if air strikes suffice, the price tag could be $10 billion or even $15 billion, budget analysts say. The costs will escalate enormously if U.S. ground forces enter the war. General Wesley Clark confidently assured NATO leaders on April 23 that "we're winning, [Milosevic] is losing, and he knows it." Officially, the air campaign is succeeding as planned, and there is still no NATO consensus to do detailed military planning for a ground invasion. But unofficial discussions are occurring, and the Clinton administration has now cleared the way for quick consideration of ground deployment. U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright says it is "prudent" for NATO to update its military assessment. "I think it is inappropriate to rule anything out, and we have not done so," she told a news conference on April 22. Without a doubt, Milosevic is hopelessly outgunned. The Serb infrastructure is starting to crumble, and Serb military assets have been seriously degraded. But Milosevic shows no sign of willingness to back down, and for the most part the Serb people seem willing to withstand more pounding rather than submit. Meanwhile, Russia's warnings continue, and anti-NATO sentiment in Russia is growing fast. If confronted over the oil blockade, Russia might finally feel required to push back. Thus, like a slow dance, the Balkan war continues to unfold.
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