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Red Cross Sees Increasing Likelihood of Natural Disasters In a June 1999 report, the International Red Cross warned of a coming era of 'super-disasters' with more 'environmental refugees,' higher insurance losses and declining ability of relief efforts to meet the challenge. By GSReport Start Date: 6/25/99 The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) on June 24 unveiled its annual World Disasters Report for 1999. The report says 1998 was the worst year on record for losses from natural disasters, and it warns of a coming era of "super-disasters" caused by a combination of factors including global climate change, population growth and the spread of poverty. At the same time, the Red Cross also warns that the willingness of financial donors and the ability of governments and insurance companies to provide relief will increasingly fail to meet the challenges posed by the rising tide of global disasters. According to the Red Cross report, some 21,000 human deaths were directly attributable to natural disasters in 1998, while 25 million people became "environmental refugees" when their homes were destroyed by floods or storms. Up to 180 million people were temporarily displaced by flooding in China alone. On the other hand, Indonesia was gripped by its worst drought in fifty years. Extreme weather conditions in much of the world were linked to El Nino and its converse, La Nina. Insurance costs related to natural disaster reached an estimated $90 billion last year -- by far an all-time record -- despite the fact that many losses were not insured. For example, amidst the devastation caused in Central America by Hurricane Mitch, only 2 percent of property losses were insured, the report says. Even so, faced with the near certainty of more super-storms in the years ahead, many insurance companies now refuse to insure property damage in the Caribbean region and other high-risk areas. As human population grows, especially in coastal cities, more and more people become vulnerable to storms and flooding. Half the world's people now live in coastal areas, the report says. Moreover, a billion people live in make-shift shanty towns surrounding major cities. Their ramshackle dwellings offer no protection from severe weather; and in case of a storm or flood, they are especially vulnerable to outbreaks of disease. The report emphasizes the role of changing climate. "Climate change is no longer a doomsday prophecy, it's a reality... Changing climate means changing disaster patterns," said Astrid Heiberg, President of the IFRC, as the new report was being presented in Brussels. The other major factor, Heiberg said, is increasing poverty in many parts of the world. "[W]hen these two factors [climate change and poverty] collide, you have a new scale of catastrophe," she said. Adding to the bleak picture is the fact that donor aid is slowing as the need for disaster relief is growing. It's a case of "donor fatigue" -- as the number and severity of disasters rises, donors gradually give up, or limit their offers of aid to a few high-profile projects. Over the last five years, emergency aid funds have dropped by 40 percent, the Red Cross report said. If more money were invested in disaster preparedness and prevention, however, losses could be greatly reduced, the report says. For example, deforestation of the Himalayan foothills has greatly increased the risk of flooding in Bangladesh, putting over 100 million people directly in harm's way. But reversing the deforestation by replanting and protecting the forests would in turn reduce the risks of flooding. However, in Bangladesh as in many other parts of the world, deforestation is largely driven by poverty, coupled with a lack of awareness of the role trees play in flood control. As the number of poor and uneducated people grows, the risks of disaster grow as well.
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