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Transitions: King Hussein, Soon Mandela, Yeltsin The passing of Jordan's King Hussein marked the end of an era in the Middle East. Other major leaders soon to leave the world stage include Nelson Mandela and Boris Yeltsin.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 2/10/99 Jordan's King Hussein was laid to rest on February 8, 1999 after losing his battle with cancer, and the world mourned. Rarely has a leader's passing evoked such universal homage. The funeral became an occasion for sworn enemies to stand side by side in tribute to a man who stood for peace in the Middle East. As Elyakim Rubinstein, Israel's attorney general, put it: "I truly felt I was participating in an astounding event, to stand one yard from President Assad [of Syria] and all the leaders of the Arab world." All four living presidents of the United States attended the funeral, and ailing Russian president Boris Yeltsin flew to Jordan against his doctor's strict orders. President Clinton used the occasion to meet informally with Syria's Assad, the first time the two have met since 1994. Assad, a hardline opponent of Israel, had denounced King Hussein's 1994 peace treaty with the Jewish state, but was heard to say at the King's funeral that he would support the continuing search for peace in the region. Assad himself had never before attended a diplomatic event also attended by Israelis. The King's passing marks a dramatic transition in Middle East affairs. Hussein was truly the father of modern Jordan, a leader who was regarded as "one of the family" by millions of Jordanians and who became, both symbolically and literally, a keystone in the fragile peace of the region. But Hussein's is not the only transition that could soon shake up the strategic order. In the Middle East, many key leaders may soon pass from the scene, including ailing King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, and Syria's Assad. New, less-tested leaders will be obliged to assume responsibility for the region's complex problems, as King Hussein's son and heir, Prince Abdullah, is now doing. Meanwhile, great transitions lie just ahead for other strategic regions as well. Among the most significant will be the stepping down of South Africa's first post-apartheid president, Nelson Mandela, following elections scheduled for May. Mandela, like King Hussein, has gained the respect of the entire world and represents the progress and aspirations not only of South Africa but of all black Africa. Many uncertainties attend the post-Mandela era. The man considered sure to succeed Mandela is Deputy President Thabo Mbeki. Though strongly endorsed by Mandela -- which will probably ensure Mbeki's election -- the two men are very different. Mandela is a man of the people, a warm and gracious father figure, a genuine hero and the acknowledged chief architect of the new South Africa. Any successor would find Mandela's shoes difficult to fill. But Mbeki, though capable, has none of Mandela's charisma. Mbeki does not inspire trust, according to savvy South Africa watchers. He is aloof, and is said to harbor a deep resentment toward white affluence and influence in his country. For his part, Mandela knows that the work of creating a new South Africa has barely begun, and many trials lie ahead. In what was probably his last major address before South Africa's parliament on February 5, Mandela noted that the initial euphoria that greeted the end of apartheid in 1994 has long since waned, giving way to the stark realities of persistent poverty, high crime and widespread racial hatred. Mandela, through sheer force of personality, was able to instill confidence in South Africa's white minority even as the white power structure was being eroded. But Mbeki has neither the patience nor the desire, some say, to pursue Mandela's politics of reconciliation with white South Africans. Therefore, the prospects for this strategically critical region in the post-Mandela era remain very much in doubt. Perhaps even more doubtful are the prospects for Russia, where an ailing President Boris Yeltsin clings to power while many contending forces swirl about him. Yeltsin too, like Mandela, is the first elected leader and a chief architect of his transformed nation, post-Soviet Russia. Unlike Mandela, however, Yeltsin has not won the hearts of his people. Indeed, he is widely reviled. Opponents in the Russian parliament have been scheming to impeach him; resurgent communists would gladly overturn his attempts at market reform; and at least several would-be successors are indiscretely hinting that a post-Yeltsin Russia would be a Russia better off. Whether such sentiments are true, however, is questionable. Russia's problems are enormous by any measure, and are almost sure to get worse regardless of leadership. But Yeltsin critics may be right in alleging that most of his limited energy is expended simply on staying in power. Affairs of state are now almost entirely in the hands of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov. When Yeltsin showed up in his own office on February 9, it was only the third time since the beginning of the year that he had done so. In recent days, Moscow has surged with rumors that Primakov might be fired, as his two predecessors had been, for variously failing to solve intractable problems and lusting too much for personal power. It is likely, however, that Yeltsin will not sack Primakov, as that would undoubtedly precipitate a crisis of confidence throughout all Russia. Yeltsin clings to the hope that he will survive two more years to complete his term, after which he will necessarily step down. But he suffers from many ailments including heart disease and serious ulcers. Meanwhile, the Russian economy is literally crumbling, giving perverse comfort to the most outspoken opponents of western style market reforms. And if the present problems were not enough, Y2K will very likely add a horrific new element to Russia's woes. Even now, Russia is appealing to the West for three billion dollars in aid for Y2K remediation, but that assistance has not yet been approved and may not be nearly sufficient. Meanwhile, back in the Middle East, memories linger of a Jordanian King who once knelt on the ground, crying, as he offered apology to an Israeli woman whose daughter had been killed by a crazed Jordanian soldier. It was "an act of greatness of a great man, a man who knew war and grew to hate it," said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the face of cynicism and hardship, people like King Hussein and Nelson Mandela have shown that personal greatness still matters. Whether a new generation of leaders can rise to their standard remains to be seen.
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