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Global Aging Adds New Wrinkle to Population Problem There are more old people alive today than ever before, putting new strains on social security and raising questions about the value of longevity itself. By GSReport Start Date: 2/25/99 The cover story of the March 1, 1999 edition of the respected weekly magazine U.S. News and World Report is titled "The Global Aging Crisis." The story reveals that in the year 2000, for the first time ever, the developed countries of the world will have more people aged 60 and up than youths aged 14 and under. For the world as a whole, the same will be true by the year 2043. The implications of a human population that is both growing and aging are numerous and worrying. In traditional societies the world over, as well as in modern societies served by social security systems, a fundamental assumption has been that young people will substantially outnumber the elderly and will provide, directly or indirectly, for the welfare of those who are past their productive working years. However, in a world where the elderly are becoming more numerous than the young, the bedrock assumptions of social security are in serious trouble. The shift in age distribution is driven by two major forces. First, birthrates are declining in most parts of the world, but especially in the industrialized nations. And second, life expectancy is increasing almost everywhere. Paradoxically, although total global population is expected to climb dramatically to more than 9 million people in the year 2050, population will actually decrease in many major nations during that period. Among those with negative population growth will be Russia, Japan, and most of the nations of Central and Western Europe. Population growth will also slow almost to replacement level (2.1 children per family, or "zero population growth") in the United States and Canada, Australia and New Zealand, France, Thailand, North and South Korea, and China. In all of these countries, by the year 2050, the number of people over the age of 60 will likely outnumber those aged 14 or less by a margin of two to one. The question is, how will human society adjust to a population that is nearly one-third senior citizens? How will social security systems manage the transition? And how will seniors themselves rethink their options and deal with their vulnerabilities in a world that no longer offers a "golden parachute"? In terms of conventional wisdom, the most-often heard suggestion is that employed people will be forced to pay ever-higher taxes to support the growing ranks of retirees. Past a certain point -- a point not many years away -- that option reduces to absurdity. The real long-term answers are harder to contemplate, but must be faced. These include raising the average retirement age, changing and diversifying the nature of social security funding, and focusing on maximizing the quality of life for the elderly, rather than simply increasing longevity. Advances in medical science, nutrition and fitness, and even bio-engineering point to the day when many human beings will have the option of living well past the age of 100. But will that longevity greatly aggravate the young-old divide without substantially elevating the quality of senior life? If so, individuals and society as a whole will have to ponder whether longevity itself is a worthy goal. The answers will not be easy to come by. Excelsior, Michael Lindemann's new novel (written under the pen name Michael Paul), depicts a wholly plausible near future in which human cloning is both widespread and widely abused; terrorists have access to target-specific biological weapons; recreational space travel is commonplace; and mounting pressures of global climate change, environmental decline, population growth and civil unrest inspire radical new approaches to urban security. Built by Frontier on a Macintosh on 6/17/00; 11:56:21 AM. Web Comments - Produced by Larry Lowe Served 5594 times since 2/25/99.

Hopeful Parents Vie Mightily For a Millennium Baby April 9, 1999 was judged by reproduction experts to be the optimal day to conceive a child born on Jan 1, 2000 -- and all around the world, couples gave it their best shot. Iran: Human Rights Improve, But Problems Persist Iran is slowly becoming a more tolerant society, but reactionary clerics strongly oppose the policies of moderate President Mohammad Khatami. Cancer Rates Are Dropping, Mostly Among Men Most kinds of cancer are decreasing, but lung cancer among U.S. women actually increased in recent years, according to the American Cancer Society. Israel Orders 11 U.S. Doomsday Suspects Out Eleven members of a fanatical religious cult from the United States were ordered to leave Israel after authorities determined that the cultists might commit acts of violence at the end of 1999. Vatican: 'Devil Made Me Do It' Ain't Necessarily So Bowing to changing times, Vatican theologians are revamping their views on the Devil. Armed Conflict in Many Nations as New Year Begins 1998 saw armed conflict in some 60 nations, and many conflicts were in progress as 1999 began. Famine Threatens Much of Africa But Eases in N. Korea A new report from the FAO says that several nations of north and central Africa face imminent danger of famine, with millions of lives at risk. Green Party Gains Power, But Loses Respect In Germany, the environmental Green party has gained unprecedented power in the government, but now finds it is losing touch with the people, and with its own message. Boeing May Use Missile Theory in TWA 800 Litigation Boeing Corp. is rumored to be considering the missile theory as a viable defense in pending litigation over the crash of TWA 800. Millennium Fever Poses Challenges for Employers The coming millennium brings with it a host of unusual new stresses in the workplace, driven by varied visions of apocalypse.