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Iraq, Balkans Unrest Raise Danger of Nuke Mistake

A top Russian defense official said on March 2, 1999 that Russia's disputes with the West over Iraq and Yugoslavia could increase the chances that Moscow would retaliate after a false warning of a missile attack.

By GSReport

Start Date: 3/10/99

In an extraordinary statement that some have interpreted as a veiled threat, a top Russian defense official said on March 2, 1999 that Russia's disputes with the West over Iraq and Yugoslavia could increase the chances that Moscow would retaliate after a false warning of a missile attack. Such a false attack warning might result from Y2K-induced radar errors or other causes, according to Vladimir Dvorkin, head of a Defense Ministry department in charge of missile-warning systems.

Dvorkin was quoted by Russia's Interfax news agency and the Associated Press.

Russia has been slow to address the Y2K problem. Russian defense officials are reportedly planning to cooperate with their counterparts in the United States, China and other nuclear-armed nations to assure that there is no accidental nuclear incident caused by Y2K. But Dvorkin's statement suggests that Russia might use the threat of a nuclear accident as diplomatic leverage against the West.

Russia has repeatedly called on Washington to stop bombing in Iraq's no-fly zones and to withdraw any threats of bombing in Yugoslavia due to the Kosovo crisis. With such tensions ongoing, "the risk of making the wrong decision is higher," Dvorkin said.

"The risk of such mistakes, including those caused by the unresolved Y2K problem, would be eliminated if international tensions eased, especially in conflict regions such as Iraq and Yugoslavia," he said.

Dvorkin offered assurances that the risk of any Russian missile being launched by accident is "negligible," but he also said that 74 control centers of Russia's Strategic Nuclear Forces were in "critical" condition because of their unpreparedness for Y2K. Russia has appealed to NATO for up to $3 billion in aid to help solve their Y2K problems.




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