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Global Population Growth Is Slowing, Study Says Increasing death rates from AIDs and starvation in the world's most impoverished regions will slow the overall growth of world population, according to the Worldwatch Institute. By Worldwatch Institute Start Date: 4/25/99 [This text is adapted from a Worldwatch Institute press release dated April 12, 1999, and summarizes findings reported in a new book, "Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge," by Lester R. Brown, Gary Gardner, and Brian Halweil.] For the first time since China's great famine claimed 30 million lives in 1959-61, rising death rates are slowing world population growth. When the United Nations released its biennial population update in late 1998, it reduced the projected world population for 2050 from 9.4 billion to 8.9 billion. Of the 500 million drop, roughly one third is the result of rising death rates. The two regions where death rates are already rising, or are likely to do so, are sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent, which together contain 1.9 billion people, nearly one third of humanity. This rise in mortality does not come as a surprise to those who track world population trends. The demand in many countries for food, water, and forest products is simply outrunning the capacity of local life support systems. If birthrates do not come down soon enough, natural systems deteriorate and social services fall short, forcing death rates up. Lester Brown, Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of the Worldwatch Institute have identified three specific threats that either are already pushing death rates up or that have the potential to do so -- the HIV epidemic, aquifer depletion, and shrinking cropland area per person. "Of these three threats, the HIV virus is the first to spiral out of control in developing countries," says Brown. "The HIV epidemic should be seen for what it is: an international emergency of epic proportions, one that could claim more lives in the early part of the next century than World War II did in this century." In sub-Saharan Africa, HIV already infects one fifth to one fourth of the adult population in Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia and Swaziland. Barring a medical miracle, many African countries will lose one fifth or more of their adult population to AIDS within the next decade. The virus has also established a foothold in the Indian subcontinent. With 4 million of its adults now HIV positive, India is home to more infected individuals than any other nation. And with the infection rate among India's adults at roughly 1 percent -- a critical threshold for potentially rapid spread -- the HIV epidemic threatens to engulf the country if the government does not move quickly to check it. In some countries, the HIV virus is reversing gains in life expectancy made in the last several decades. For example, in Botswana, life expectancy has fallen from 62 years in 1990 to 44 years in 1998. In Zimbabwe, it has fallen from 61 years in 1993 to 49 years in 2000 and could drop to 40 years in 2010. A second consequence of continuing population growth is potentially life-threatening water shortages. If rapid population growth continues indefinitely, the demand for water eventually exceeds the sustainable yield of aquifers. The result is excessive water withdrawals and falling water tables. Since 40 percent of the world's food comes from irrigated land, water shortages can quickly translate into food shortages. Dozens of developing countries face acute water shortages early in the next century, but none illustrate the threat better than India, whose population, which is expanding by 18 million per year, will soon reach 1 billion. New estimates for India indicate that water withdrawals are now double the rate of aquifer recharge, a serious matter where half of the grain harvest comes from irrigated land. "In a country where 53 percent of all children are already malnourished and underweight, a shrinking harvest could increase hunger-related deaths," says Brown. In contrast to AIDS, which takes a heavy toll of young adults, hunger claims mostly infants and children. The third threat hanging over countries where rapid population growth continues is shrinking cropland per person. As this occurs, at-risk nations become increasingly dependent upon imported food. But those same nations might not be able to afford the imported food -- and, eventually, the food simply will not be available, as world import needs exceed exportable surpluses. Among the larger countries where shrinking cropland per person threatens future food security are Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Pakistan. For example, as Nigeria's population goes from 111 million today to a projected 244 million in 2050, its grainland per person will shrink from 0.15 hectares to 0.07 hectares. Pakistan's projected growth from 146 million today to 345 million by 2050 will shrink its grainland per person from 0.08 hectares at present to 0.03 hectares, an area scarcely the size of a tennis court. Countries where grainland per person has shrunk to 0.03 hectares, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, each import some 70 percent of their grain. The threats from HIV, aquifer depletion, and shrinking cropland are not new or unexpected. It has been recognized for at least 15 years that the HIV virus could decimate human populations if it was not controlled. Similarly, "the arithmetic of emerging water shortages is not difficult," Brown says. A growing population with a water supply that is essentially fixed by nature means that the water supply per person will diminish over time. The same is true for cropland per person. "The mystery is our failure to respond to the threats associated with continuing population growth," says Brown. One of the keys to helping countries slow population growth is expanded international assistance for reproductive health and family planning. At the U.N.'s Conference on Population and Development held in Cairo in 1994, it was estimated that the annual cost of providing quality reproductive health services to all those in need in developing countries would cost $17 billion in the year 2000. By 2015, this would climb to $22 billion. Industrial countries agreed at Cairo to provide one third of the funds, with the developing countries providing the remaining two thirds. While developing countries have largely honored their commitments, the industrial countries, importantly the United States, have reneged on theirs. In late 1998, the U.S. Congress withdrew all funding for the U.N. Population Fund, the principal source of international family planning assistance. Beyond family planning, the forgiveness of international debts by governments in the industrial world could enable poor countries to make the heavy investments in education, especially of young females, that accelerates the shift to smaller families. As U.N. delegates prepare in June, 1999 to evaluate the progress made since the 1994 Cairo conference, there is a desperate need for leadership in stabilizing world population as soon as possible, Brown emphasizes. [The Worldwatch Institute is Washington, DC-based nonprofit research organization that analyzes global environmental and development issues. To order the book "Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge" by credit card, call (in the U.S.) 1-800-555-2028; or visit the institute website, http://www.worldwatch.org/titles/tea.html]
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