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Kosovo: The Long March Toward Settlement The NATO bombing campaign in Serbia entered its third month with Britain calling for a ground invasion, but most of the Alliance is resisting that impulse as efforts toward a negotiated settlement continue.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 5/25/99 As NATO's bombing campaign in Yugoslavia enters its third month, there are many signs that some kind of political settlement will have to occur by summer's end. Despite massive destruction of Serbia's infrastructure and military assets, Milosevic continues to pursue his apparent goal of emptying Kosovo of ethnic Albanians. A renewed surge of refugees out of Kosovo in recent days looks to some observers like a final push on Serbia's part, after which Milosevic can perhaps invite negotiations on terms suitable to himself. Hawks in Britain, led by Prime Minister Tony Blair, have lately urged NATO to prepare for a ground invasion. But most members of the alliance have effectively ruled out that option. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder says a ground war is "unthinkable." Russia and China, in a rare display of like-mindedness, have jointly called for an end to bombing as a precondition for negotiations aimed at settlement. Italian Premier Massimo D'Alema has called for a three-day cessation of bombing as soon as a draft U.N. resolution for a Kosovo settlement is approved. A series of perceived blunders on NATO's part in recent days -- including the unintended bombing of Serb civilian facilities and a Kosovo Liberation Army camp -- have undercut the alliance's credibility. Some observers warn that NATO is in danger of losing its moral authority in the Kosovo crisis. Time itself is against the continuation of hostilities. Though summer has not yet begun, next winter already looms as an immovable deadline for one of two outcomes -- either total capitulation of Serbia in the face of a massive NATO ground assault, or a negotiated settlement reached in time to allow repatriation of Kosovar refugees before the harsh Balkan winter turns their already desperate plight into total disaster. NATO commander General Wesley Clark on May 22 told U.S. Defense Secretary William Cohen and top military officials at the Pentagon that the time is approaching when final decisions on ground troops must be made, if a resolution is to be achieved before winter. Kenneth Bacon, Cohen's spokesman, told news reporters that Clark did not recommend a ground invasion or a change in NATO's strategy. Bacon also said that the Clinton administration wants an enlarged NATO peacekeeping force to assemble in Macedonia, on the border with Kosovo, "as quickly as possible." He said NATO's political body, the North Atlantic Council, is likely to discuss a plan this week for a peackeeping force of about 50,000 troops, of which the United States would likely contribute 7,000 to 8,000 troops. In recent statements, NATO's secretary-general Javier Solana has insisted that NATO's bombing strategy is working and will not change. "We don't want to give the impression that we are going to change the strategy," Solana said in an interview with Associated Press Television News. He added that Milosevic "is cracking. No question about it." NATO spokesman Jamie Shea underscored that view in comments to reporters in Brussels. "Milosevic is up against the ropes, he's in the corner, and that's where he's going to be kept by NATO until such time as he throws in the towel," Shea said. But to many observers, those words say less about Milosevic's frame of mind than NATO's. What seems increasingly clear is that there is no political consensus or resolve to commit ground forces in a hostile environment. That leaves only the bombing campaign as a strategy. By NATO's definition, that strategy must succeed, because failure is not an option. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott was asked on CBS-TV's "Face the Nation" on May 23 if the Senate would support sending in ground combat troops, possibly from the force of 50,000 peacekeepers that the Clinton administration wants to deploy in the region as soon as possible. "If you're talking about fighting their way in there, absolutely not," Lott said. "The president has repeatedly told the American people that we would not use ground troops in a combat mode there." One wildcard that could change the strategic balance is the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Once derided by U.S. officials as nothing but self-serving terrorists, the KLA is becoming a force to be reckoned with as thousands of ethnic Albanian men join the ranks. U.S. Defense Department spokesman Kenneth Bacon has said that the KLA now has between 17,000 and 20,000 troops, more than twice as many as when the NATO bombing began March 24. Bacon says the KLA is now better trained, better equipped and better led than when the bombing began -- no doubt partly due to help from U.S. and NATO advisors. Meanwhile, on the diplomatic front, Russian special envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin and senior Chinese leaders agreed on May 11 that NATO must halt its bombing of Yugoslavia as a precondition for resolving the Kosovo crisis. Chernomyrdin traveled to Beijing for talks following NATO's bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhu Bangzao said Chernomyrdin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Premier Zhu Rongji and Vice Premier Qian Qichen reached "extensive consensus" on the Kosovo crisis. "Both sides believed that at present the bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia must immediately stop. This is the precondition for the fundamental political solution of the Kosovo issue," Zhu told reporters. Without a bombing halt, "there is nothing to discuss." Chernomyrdin hastened to add that this does not change Russia's agreement on a proposed solution to the Kosovo crisis reached with representatives of the G-7 industrial nations several weeks ago. However, he said, "It is clear it is necessary to stop the bombing and after that to continue peace negotiations." Continuing his marathon mediation efforts, Chernomyrdin said he will hold more talks with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari on May 26 and travel to Belgrade on May 27 with Ahtisaari to meet with Milosevic. Major sticking points in the current negotiations include whether or not a small force of Serb troops will be allowed to remain in Kosovo following a cease-fire, and whether or not a force with "NATO at its core" will be permitted to control the province while ethnic Albanian refugees return to their homes. Also on the diplomatic front, German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer traveled on May 24 to Washington, where he was to meet with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to discuss ways to accelerate a possible political solution to the Kosovo crisis. "Diplomatic efforts are reaching a decisive point," said Ludger Volmer, a state secretary in the German Foreign Ministry. "The difficulty is that many actors must be in synch to take a courageous step." As NATO's bombing continues, no one can doubt that Yugoslavia has been severely devastated. Recent attacks have concentrated on the power grid, water supplies and other facilities that support both the Serb military and civilian population. But NATO assurances that Milosevic is "cracking" may be premature at best. "NATO is fighting one war and the Serbs are fighting another," says Gordon Adams, deputy director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "With respect to ethnic cleansing, Milosevic wins, at least in the near term. And the high-tech war that NATO is fighting, they are by most measures winning." It is a recipe for stalement, where the only way out may be a return to negotiation. Milosevic may be more comfortable with that option right now than NATO. But with the prospect of a major ground offensive diminishing every day, the prospect of negotiated settlement grows more real, and more near. NOTE: One day after this story was published on May 25, news sources announced the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by a U.N. war crimes tribunal in the Hague. This is the first time in history that a sitting head of state has been indicted for war crimes. Analysts were quick to point out that this could greatly complicate efforts for a negotiated settlement, as Milosevic is now more isolated than ever and has little to gain by bringing the current conflict to an end. Although a return to negotiation remains likely, this new factor could strengthen the position of those in the NATO alliance who favor the use of ground combat forces. [Based upon reports from the Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, MSNBC and other sources.]
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