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Factoid:

Modern Israel has been involved in four wars with its Arab neighbors: in 1948-49, 1956, 1967 and 1973. The Six-Day War of 1967 more than doubled Israel's territory.


Will Change in Israel Bring Peace in Mid-East?

The landslide victory of Ehud Barak in Israel raised hopes for a revival of the Mid-East peace process. But Barak must first form a government.

Start Date: 5/25/99

It was the biggest electoral landslide in the history of modern Israel and seemed to thoroughly repudiate the policies of outgoing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his conservative Likud party. Only 30 minutes after election booths closed on May 17, Netanyahu conceded defeat at the hands of political newcomer Ehud Barak. Soon after, Netanyahu stunned friends and foes alike by resigning as leader of Likud.

Barak won 56 percent of the vote against 43 percent for Netanyahu. It was a mandate for change -- change away from the divisive Netanyahu style and away from the influence of ultra-orthodox, ultra-nationalist political factions; and change toward a more inclusive and trusting Israel in a more peaceful Middle East. At least, those were the hopes of millions in Israel and around the world as the election results came in.

Ehud Barak, one of Israel's most respected and decorated soldiers, is a man who can talk peace without being accused of compromising security. Undoubtedly Barak wants to re-energize the peace process that stalled under Netanyahu. But Barak must first build a coalition government. And he cannot ignore the real and perceived threats to Israeli security that lurk all around.

Congratulatory messages to Barak from around the world emphasized the high hopes for peace. "The international community has hopes that the creation of Israel's new government will finally get the Middle East peace process out of its dangerous dead end," declared a statement from Russia's Foreign Ministry. "You take office... at a critical phase of the Middle East peace process, which demands a special measure of courage, decisiveness and initiative," said German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair said that Barak's victory "gives him a mandate to move forward the peace process." King Abdullah of Jordan called to wish Barak well and then told reporters, "We see eye-to-eye on many issues, and we're very optimistic of taking the peace process forward."

Others, however, emphasized the fragility of Barak's position. The Israeli Parliament is split among many parties, and Barak must form a workable coalition before he can get down to the business of leading Israel toward a more peaceful future.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, when asked if he thought Barak's election would bring peace, would only volunteer, "We hope so." On May 21, Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said Barak's government "will be judged by how it implements the agreements on the ground... When we see the settlement activity stopped, then we will see a real chance for peace." And on May 23, Arafat announced plans to convene an Arab summit to coordinate policy with the new Israeli government.

Arafat is concerned that the Palestinians will be disadvantaged in future negotiations if Israel moves quickly toward a separate peace agreement with Syria. Barak has already indicated the possibility of withdrawing from the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967. Peace with Syria would also pave the way for peace between Israel and Lebanon. Jordan and Egypt already have peace treaties with Israel. Arafat fears the Palestinians could soon be more isolated than ever in the Arab world.

Also irksome to the Palestinians is the fact that Israeli settlers broke ground on several new settlements in the disputed West Bank on the very eve of the elections. The future of many West Bank settlers is one of the most contentious issues facing the new Prime Minister.

In moving to form a coalition government, Barak drew up a 10-point position statement for consideration by would-be coalition partners. Among those points: Israel would not entirely withdraw from the West Bank, and Israel would not relinquish control of any part of Jerusalem. Both of these points could spell trouble for the peace process.

As this issue of GSReport is written, Barak is facing a hard choice in his coalition-building effort. It appears he will have to bring either the conservative Likud or the orthodox religious Shas Party into his government. Barak supporters are virtually unanimous in their opposition to Shas. Likud, then, is the likely choice -- the lesser of two evils, from Barak's point of view. It is just the first of many difficult compromises that will face the new Prime Minister in the days ahead.




Excelsior, Michael Lindemann's new novel (written under the pen name Michael Paul), depicts a wholly plausible near future in which human cloning is both widespread and widely abused; terrorists have access to target-specific biological weapons; recreational space travel is commonplace; and mounting pressures of global climate change, environmental decline, population growth and civil unrest inspire radical new approaches to urban security.



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