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Kosovo: Bombing Stops, But Major Challenges Ahead Serb troops began pulling out of Kosovo, NATO suspended bombing and peacekeepers awaited orders to deploy, raising hopes that the Balkan conflict was over and nearly one million refugees could soon start for home.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 6/10/99 Suddenly, everything started falling into place. With the agreement of Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic, members of the G-8 group of nations drafted a U.N. resolution to end the Balkan conflict and NATO military commanders negotiated through the night with their Serb counterparts to bring about withdrawal of Serb troops from Kosovo and an end to NATO bombing. On the morning of June 10, the long-awaited announcement came. Serb troops were on their way out; bombing would stop; and the first wave of peacekeepers were poised to enter Kosovo. Anticipating that peace was finally at hand, citizens in Belgrade reportedly partied through the night of June 9-10. "The withdrawal of Yugoslav security forces from Kosovo is taking place," said NATO Secretary General Javier Solana on Thursday morning. "A few moments ago I instructed Gen. Wesley Clark to suspend NATO's air operations." With an end to bombing, the U.N. Security Council was ready to act quickly to formalize the peacekeeping phase. Both Russia and China -- permanent Security Council members with veto power -- had said they would not approve any final resolution until bombing stopped. The G-8 draft resolution put before the Security Council did not entirely resolve the command structure of the 50,000-strong peacekeeping force that will soon enter Kosovo. NATO is mentioned only once in an annex to the 8-page text, and NATO command is not specified. The vague language was crafted in order to skirt the sensitive issue of Russia's military role in the peacekeeping phase, since Russia's approval is crucial to the success of any peace agreement. Russian military spokesmen have said their troops will never serve under NATO command. According to Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, all aspects relating to the military force "will be further discussed... This is a subject for negotiation and at the moment we are not going to settle the Russian participation in advance." At least 5,000 Russian troops are expected to join the peacekeeping effort. But NATO leaders were quick to assert that there is no question regarding the operational realities of the peacekeeping force. In that view, a force "with NATO at its core" will take charge in Kosovo following Serb troop withdrawal. "We have made very clear... NATO will be the military leader," said U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. In command will be British Lieutenant General Sir Michael Jackson. The peacekeeping forces will be heavily armed and prepared to encounter resistance both from retreating Serb forces and from elements of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Among other things, they will be charged with "demilitarizing" the KLA -- that is, taking custody of heavy KLA weapons, but not firearms -- as well as supporting the safe return of refugees. The KLA remains a wildcard in the Kosovo situation. Both their ranks and their prestige have swelled enormously since the start of NATO's campaign. The KLA's aspirations for an independent Kosovo, while unrealistic from NATO's perspective, may well be shared by a majority of refugees who will soon be returning home. For those who have lost everything at the hands of the hated Serbs, the idea of remaining beholden to Belgrade is a hideous prospect. Keeping those sentiments in check could pose a serious dilemma for NATO's peacekeepers. Topping the list of next steps will be expediting the safe return of refugees. At this point, those close to the refugee situation are not optimistic about how fast that can happen. Much of Kosovo's infrastructure has been physically destroyed. Up to half of all houses and thousands of businesses have been looted and burned. Roads have been bombed and mined. Livestock has been killed, farms ravaged. It will not be easy to go home. United Nations relief agencies called on June 9 for an additional $473 million in aid for the Kosovo region, on top of $267 million previously requested. But money alone will not be enough. Winter looms as a threat that will arrive all too soon. Under optimum conditions, officials of the U.N. High Commission on Refugees believe that some 500,000 refugees could be repatriated by autumn. But others are less optimistic, citing both the massive devastation in Kosovo and the sheer logistical nightmare of organizing the orderly relocation of nearly a million people. Some believe only 30 percent of the displaced will be home before winter. Beyond the pressing refugee issue, many other questions loom as well. What is the long-term prospect for Kosovo, whether in or outside of Yugoslavia? Would Belgrade agree to partition the province, keeping the mineral-rich northern half and surrendering the rest to the ethnic Albanians? For now, such a thing is unlikely, but later developments may hinge on the fate of Milosevic himself. Will he be seen by his own people as a hero who stood up to NATO, or will he be denounced, and perhaps deposed, for bringing the nation to the brink of ruin? Now an indicted war criminal, Milosevic has few places to hide if his welcome in Serbia runs out. A chronically unstable Balkan region has been Europe's curse during the entire 20th century. Now, with the new millennium, European nations are united in the desire to ensure a stable and democratic Yugoslavia. One way or another, Milosevic and his ilk will not be tolerated much longer. Only when Western-style democratic institutions can be assured will rebuilding of the region begin in earnest. The Balkan conflict also raises new questions about the efficacy of air warfare. For the first time ever, a major military campaign has been fought solely in the air and met its stated objectives. Pundits and military strategists will continue to argue over whether the outcome represents an actual victory for NATO. Milosevic held out longer than most analysts expected and remains in power, with a portion of his military still intact. He succeeded in driving most of the ethnic Albanians from Kosovo before capitulating, and told his own people in a televised address on June 10 that the victory belonged to Yugoslavia. His brave words were mostly bluster, however. Serbia is in a shambles. Serb control of Kosovo has been lost and the Albanian Kosovars will soon return home. The days of Milosevic may well be numbered. Meanwhile, by any measure, losses on the NATO side were astonishingly low. Previously, the Gulf War against Iraq was perhaps the most one-sided victory in memory. But the Balkan conflict was moreso by far, with -- according to official sources -- no more than a handful of NATO aircraft lost, a handful of casualties. And there will be no dark legacy comparable to Gulf War Syndrome in years to come. In short, for NATO's combatants, a more antiseptic and low-cost victory could hardly be imagined. For U.S. President Bill Clinton, the appearance of victory in Kosovo may pay extra dividends. With only minor lapses, Clinton consistently maintained -- against often scathing criticism from many sides -- that NATO air power alone would suffice and ground troops would not be put into combat. As it turns out, he was right. In retrospect, some will call that dumb and undeserved luck -- the luck of a failed president without the backbone to be a tough Commander in Chief. But some are already arguing that Kosovo may be Clinton's saving grace, a sustained act of clarity, firmness and wisdom deserving of admiration and reward. Vice President Al Gore could collect on that reward in his coming bid for the presidency.
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