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China-Taiwan Rift Could Provoke Global Crisis Taiwan's recent dramatic shift away from a long-standing 'one China' policy prompted threats of armed retaliation by Beijing and got almost no support from the West.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 7/25/99 Festering tensions between the communist Chinese government and Taiwan's democratically elected government broke into the open in mid-July and now threaten not only regional stability but U.S.-China relations as well. At issue is the so-called "one China" policy insisted upon by Beijing. In this version of reality, Taiwan is a renegade province of greater China, and the two must eventually be politically reunited. Because of China's overwhelming influence in the region, most nations of the world, notably the United States and Japan, have grudgingly acquiesced to this policy despite glaring economic, political and historical contradictions. As a result, Taiwan remains a nation in limbo, on one hand forging its own path of democratic governance and economic prosperity that puts Beijing to shame, on the other hand enjoying neither true sovereignty nor the assurance of military assistance from any side in the event of assault from the mainland. And such assault is a real threat. In recent days, Beijing has declared that it will use any means necessary, including armed intervention, to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence. The latest burst of tension began on July 9 when Taiwan's President Lee Teng-hui announced he wished to conduct upcoming talks with Beijing on a "two-state" basis. Beijing immediately recognized this language as an attempt to modify the long-standing "one China" assumption -- and they were not wrong. Lee staunchly reiterated in the following days that, while he and the people of Taiwan still look forward to possible reunification with the mainland, that prospect is "for the future and can only be achieved through democratic unification in which Taiwan and China are treated as equals." Beijing officials were infuriated by this move toward greater autonomy, immediately threatening armed intervention. The newspaper Wen Wei Po quoted Chinese military sources as saying, "When peaceful reunification is hopeless, and 'Taiwan independence' forces are splitting the motherland, we will not rule out using military force to resolve the Taiwan problem." Chinese Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan harshly warned U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to "be very careful not to say anything or do anything that may fan the flames of Taiwan independence or Lee Teng-hui's separatist remarks or activities." The confrontation between Albright and Tang came while both are attending a meeting in Singapore of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). In the face of mounting pressure, Lee backed down only to the extent of substituting the term "special state-to-state" relations for the prior, more inflamatory "two-state" reference. Lee says rejection of the "one China" policy merely reflects political reality and is supported by most people in Taiwan. In this he is probably correct. The trouble comes at a time when U.S.-Chinese relations are at a low ebb, following the bombing of China's Belgrade embassy and a series of disputes over trade and human rights. The Clinton administration, intent on rebuilding trust and cooperation with Beijing, is in no position to offer support to Taiwan in the wake of Lee's policy shift. Indeed, both U.S. and Japanese envoys have been dispatched to try to diffuse the situation and smooth over what is viewed by some as a political gaffe on Lee's part. There can be little doubt that Chinese people on both sides of the Formosa Strait earnestly desire peaceful reunification. China is the oldest and one of the most internally cohesive civilizations in the world. In that light, the current communist phase, increasingly anachronistic and backward, is but a small blip in the truly long march of Chinese history. But the people and government of Taiwan must not be forced to renounce their own more progressive course in order to rejoin greater China. It is the responsibility of the West to assure -- through the skillful application of diplomacy and economic incentives and the avoidance of regional war -- that the reunification of China comes only when the forces of democracy overcome the forces of autocracy in Beijing.
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