SECTIONS Home Society SciTech Planet Cosmos SPECIAL Contents About Factoid: The year 1998 was not only the hottest on record, but weather- related damage worldwide totaled $92 billion, up 53 percent from the previous record of $60 billion in 1996. Factoid: The year 1998 saw un- precedented levels of damage to coral reefs in many parts of the world, apparently caused by global warming. In some parts of the Indian Ocean, up to 90 percent of reefs are dead or dying. Quote: As policymakers, industry and the public tackle the challenges of climate change, understanding the seriousness and complexity of the issue is critical to crafting effective responses. -- Eileen Claussen, Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Experts Say Global Warming More Than Predicted A new study released by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change foresees greater global warming than previously predicted, along with greater extremes of weather and faster sea level rise. Start Date: 7/10/99 As much of the United States suffered through a major July heatwave, a new report on global warming said that temperatures are now expected to rise somewhat more by the year 2100 than previously predicted, and the temperature increase in the United States might be slightly greater than for the world as a whole. The new study, "The Science of Climate Change: Global and U.S. Perspectives," was conducted and written by Tom M.L. Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research for the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. It predicts greater change in global temperatures than predicted by a study conducted in 1995 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The new study also predicts that rising sea level associated with climate change will be somewhat greater than previously predicted. The Pew Center study projects global-mean temperature increases ranging from 1.3 to 4.0 degrees C (2.3 to 7.2 degrees F), as compared with previous projections of 0.8 to 3.5 degrees C (1.4 - 6.3 degrees F). The Pew study also predicts sea level rise of 17 to 99 cm (7 to 39 in) by the year 2100, versus a previous projection of 13 to 94 cm (5 to 37 in) from the IPCC. Paradoxically, Wigley's prediction of higher temperature is associated with the reduction of one kind of atmospheric pollutant, sulfur dioxide. Success in reducing sulfur dioxide emissions works against efforts to contain global climate change, because sulfur dioxide acts opposite the greenhouse effect of gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and CFCs. Based on results from a number of climate models, the rate of future warming for the United States is expected to be noticeably faster than the global-mean rate, according to the Pew study. While the U.S. Southeast and Southwest tend to show warming slightly below the global-mean, the northernmost states from North Dakota eastward to Maine show enhanced warming by a factor of up to two during the winter months. Future regional-scale precipitation changes are highly uncertain. The only result that is common to all climate models is an increase in winter precipitation in northern latitudes, from the northern Great Plains to the northeastern states. The study also predicts greater weather extremes as warming continues. For example: -- warm temperature extremes will almost certainly become more frequent, while cold temperature extremes will probably become less frequent; -- the frequency of high precipitation events is likely to increase, bringing increased chances of flooding and possibly changing agricultural and forest patterns; -- an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic region is possible, and rainfall associated with hurricanes will probably increase. This research also strengthens the IPCC's position that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." The effects of solar changes on the climate have been better quantified, the Pew Center says. New data show that solar changes can only account for about one-third of the observed global-mean warming. Much of the balance of observed and projected global warming is thought to be associated with human activity. "As policymakers, industry and the public tackle the challenges of climate change, understanding the seriousness and complexity of the issue is critical to crafting the most effective responses," said Eileen Claussen, Executive Director of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change. "The data and likely impacts outlined in this study should encourage concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions." Meanwhile, another study released on June 23 by a team of U.S. and German scientists predicted that jet contrails will contribute significantly to global warming within the next 50 years. Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers said that global air traffic may increase sixfold by 2050. Already, in areas of highest air traffic in Europe, contrails can cover up to 3.8 percent of the sky at any given time, while in the northeast U.S., contrails can cover up to 5.5 percent of the sky. Those contrails contribute to the greenhouse effect. The researchers predict that for Europe as a whole, contrail coverage will increase by a factor of four by 2050. Over the continental U.S., contrails will increase 2.6 times, and over Asia as a whole, contrails will increase by a factor of 10. The scientists say they believe these estimates are conservative. Excelsior, Michael Lindemann's new novel (written under the pen name Michael Paul), depicts a wholly plausible near future in which human cloning is both widespread and widely abused; terrorists have access to target-specific biological weapons; recreational space travel is commonplace; and mounting pressures of global climate change, environmental decline, population growth and civil unrest inspire radical new approaches to urban security. Built by Frontier on a Macintosh on 6/17/00; 12:08:59 PM. Web Comments - Produced by Larry Lowe Served 4066 times since 7/10/99.

NASA: Greenland's Glaciers Are Shrinking A new study suggests that rapid thinning and excess run-off from Greenland's southeastern glaciers may be partly caused by climate changes. Cambodia Fights Illegal Logging as Forests Shrink Cambodia's tropical forests are being devastated by a mostly illegal logging trade, abetted by corrupt politicians and military officers. Amphibian Deaths: Environment's 'Canary in a Coal Mine' Amphibians are dying all over the world, taking many species to extinction. So far, no one really knows why. New Iceberg Is Bigger Than Delaware The biggest iceberg seen since 1987 broke away from Antarctica in October, 1998, but most of the Antarctic ice sheet seems stable, scientists said. Global Warming Seen as Cause of Antarctic Melting New research shows that two large Antarctic ice shelves lost a combined total of nearly 1,100 square miles of ice in 1998, apparently due to global warming. Red Cross Sees Increasing Likelihood of Natural Disasters In a June 1999 report, the International Red Cross warned of a coming era of 'super-disasters' with more 'environmental refugees,' higher insurance losses and declining ability of relief efforts to meet the challenge. Much Deforestation Driven By Population, Poverty Marginalized by the spread of commercial farming and ranching enterprises, subsistance farmers are forced to destroy large amounts of tropical forest for new farmland. Amazon Destruction More Rapid Than Expected Destruction of the Amazon rainforest is occurring two to three times more rapidly than previously estimated. Conservatively, 16 percent of the original forest is already gone. New Theory Says Oil Reserves Bigger Than Expected -- And E.T. Might Live Underground Cornell University Professor Thomas Gold says oil is purely geological, not biological, in origin; and life probably started underground, so look there for ET.