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Y2K's Gentle Arrival Surprises Many Analysts Y2K came in like a lamb as New Year's Day dawned almost free of problems around the world. Even optimists seemed pleasantly surprised.  By Michael Lindemann Start Date: 01/10/00 The most anticipated calamity in recent memory was a no-show on Jan 1, 2000, leaving Y2K doomsayers groping for words. "I think all of us view it as a great victory that we can sit here and talk about 'Was the money well spent,'" quipped John Koskinen, head of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. By various estimates, the total expenditure on remediation by governments and businesses ranged from a low of $200 billion to well over half a trillion dollars. "We should not underestimate the nature of the problem that was originally there," Koskinen added. By way of illustration, he told reporters that three older computers had been left running in an undisclosed location as a "control group." In the admittedly non-scientific experiment, all three computers failed and became "unusable" as the clock ticked over to Jan 1, he said. Harris Miller, president of the Information Technology Association of America, said questions of excessive spending were inevitable given the few reported problems. But "[Y2K] was a real problem. So many people worked so hard to solve the problem, we should see this as a sign of success, not cynicism," he said. Even so, the smoothness of the transition seemed almost uncanny. Among those caught by surprise were the U.S. State Department, CIA and Department of Defense, all of whom had issued warnings of probable large-scale breakdowns in foreign countries such as Russia and China, thought to be far behind in Y2K preparations. But at the rollover, power stayed on almost everywhere in the world, and glitches were few and far between. "In some cases, we may have misestimated the degree to which these countries were dependent upon computer-controlled infrastructure," said U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre. Gary North, most articulate and influential of the Y2K doomsayers, admitted amazement at the outcome. "I honestly do not understand the situation.... Am I baffled? Yes. Do I have an explanation? Not a good one," he wrote. Dr. Edward Yardeni, chief economist for Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, who had predicted a Y2K-driven global recession, told Reuters on Jan 6: "The recession forecast was just wrong... It turns out that none of my concerns were warranted." Gartner Group analyst Andy Kyte emphasized that there could have been major disaster if the costly remediation efforts had not been done. "[T]here would have been chaos. We would have seen persistent breakdowns in major computer systems in public and private sectors causing massive disruption to political and social and economic life," he said. Gartner Group, a leading U.S. information technology research company, also repeated warnings made since mid-1998 that fewer than 10 percent of all Y2K-related failures will occur during the two weeks surrounding Jan 1, 2000. while 55 percent of problems will hit over the rest of the year. "We've been saying for a long time that this was not going to be a pyrotechnic event. It is not about fireworks going off now... It's about the gradual degradation of the efficiency of computer systems," Kyte said in a Jan 1 interview. Many others agreed that the Y2K problem is not over. Peter de Jager, among the first computer experts to warn of Y2K's potential effects, said in a Reuters interview on Jan 4, "Have you received your paycheck? Have you received your Visa bill? Have you received your electrical bill?... None of these business processes have occurred yet. So, for anyone to suggest we're through Y2K is making the assumption that none of these business processes are going to be affected. That's an extremely naive assumption." Frank Bajak, writing for the Associated Press on Jan 4, said that "the vast majority of Year 2000 computer problems won[pi]t turn up for days, weeks or even months... So forget the somehow widely disseminated misconception that if planet Earth got past Jan. 1 without any info-disasters, we'd be home free. Think not of Y2K as an information age earthquake avoided but rather as a steady stream of gradually more damaging tremors to come." To be sure, there were Y2K glitches reported in the days following the rollover. Some may be indicative of problems ahead. Japan's Shika Nuclear Power Station reported a minor problem at 10 minutes after midnight on Jan 1, according to the Associated Press. A Y2K glitch shut down a radiation alarm system but not the plant itself. There were no actual leaks or safety problems, experts said. On Jan 5, Kyodo news service reported that Japanese nuclear power plants had so far seen seven minor problems, none of which threatened public safety. Similarly, according to Mitch Ratcliff, writing for UPI on Jan 1, seven of the 103 U.S. nuclear power plants also reported minor incidents, though none caused disruption of plant operations. Reuters reported that a glitch at the Oak Ridge nuclear weapons plant in Tennessee that began during the weekend continued through Jan 4, affecting a computer that tracks nuclear material at the plant. Visa and Mastercard warned consumers on Jan 7 that their credit cards might get charged twice for some transactions because some merchants had failed to update computer software. Brazil's busiest seaport at Santos reported a Y2K glitch that was holding up some customs processing, according to Reuters on Jan 7. But Brazilian authorites said the problem was not serious and was not disrupting shipping operations. Will Y2K now fade into the background or continue to make news? Only time will tell. GSReport will carry updates as circumstances warrant.
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